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學校名稱輔仁大學
系所名稱金融研究所
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學號493755185
研究生(中)吳佳鴻
研究生(英)Wu Jia-hung
論文名稱(中)加權指數期貨與ETF套利關係之實證分析
論文名稱(英)The Empirical Analysis of the Arbitrage Relationship Between Taiwan Index Futures and ETF.
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指導教授(中)林蒼祥
指導教授(英)William T. Lin
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畢業學年度94
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關鍵字(中)指數股票型基金 ETFs 單根檢定 共整合
關鍵字(英)ETFs FILTERS
摘要(中)我們對台灣股價指數期貨TX與台灣50卓越基金TTT進行套利研究,在計入融券成本、手續費、期交稅與轉倉成本後,發現濾嘴門檻的適當設置,提高了每筆交易的平均獲利,但同時也拉長了每筆交易的平均持有的期間,使得交易成本項如手續費與交易稅因交易次數減少雖有下降,但近遠月部位轉倉價差的成本卻大幅提高,導致利潤的下降;因此,在交易期間與噪音的過濾的取捨間,應有其平衡要求,並非濾嘴門檻越高越佳。
摘要(英)After taking the transaction costs and the costs of rolling futures into accounts, the spread arbitrage strategy between Taiwan index futures and TTT is still profitable. The appropriate filters can raise the average return per trade but extend the average holding period as well. Although the transaction costs, such as trading fees and taxes, decrease due to the less numbers of trading, the costs of rolling futures that erodes the profit increase dramatically. Therefore, it should be well-balanced between the holding period and the filter of noise rather than chasing the higher filter alone.
論文目次第壹章 緒論 …………………………………………………………4 第一節 研究背景與動機…………………………………………………………4 第二節 研究目的…………………………………………………………………6 第三節 研究架構與流程…………………………………………………………7 第貳章 文獻回顧 ……………………………………………………9 第一節 指數期貨與現貨套利研究與其缺陷……………………………………9 第二節 指數期貨價差交易………………………………………………………11 第參章 研究方法 ……………………………………………………14 第一節 研究方法…………………………………………………………………14 第二節 套利模型…………………………………………………………………20 第肆章 實證結果與分析 ……………………………………………21 第一節 資料與假設………………………………………………………………21 第二節 單根檢定…………………………………………………………………23 第三節 共整合檢定………………………………………………………………25 第四節 套利策略與模擬交易……………………………………………………27 第伍章 結論與建議 …………………………………………………41 參考文獻 ………………………………………………………………42 附錄 ……………………………………………………………………45 表目錄 表4-1 台股期貨 (TX)年成交量統計表 ………………………………………22 表4-2 台灣50期貨(TF)年成交量統計表 ……………………………………22 表4-3 TX與TTT原始序列之單根檢定…………………………………………23 表4-4 TX與TTT序列一次差分之單根檢定……………………………………23 表4-5 TX與TTT序列之共整合檢定-跡檢定…………………………………24 表4-6 TX與TTT序列之共整合檢定-最大特性根檢定………………………24 表4-7 TX與TTT間之標準化共整合向量………………………………………26 表4-8 TX與TTT價差敘述統計量………………………………………………27 表4-9 TX與TTT價差序列之單根檢定…………………………………………27 表4-10 TX與TTT價差序列之自我相關係數……………………………………28 表4-11 買入TX賣出TTT之套利交易策略 ……………………………………30 表4-12 賣出TX買入TTT之套利交易策略………………………………………30 表4-13 未考慮交易與轉倉成本之模擬結果……………………………………32 表4-14 考慮交易與轉倉成本之模擬結果………………………………………34 表4-15 各項交易成本佔總獲利比例……………………………………………34 表4-16 各項交易成本金額………………………………………………………35 表4-17 報酬變異率 TX vs TTT…………………………………………………38 表4-18 TX vs TTT交易策略報酬率 ……………………………………………40 表4-19 考慮交易與轉倉成本之模擬結果………………………………………40 圖目錄 圖4-1 DIFF TX vs TTT ……………………………………………………29 圖4-2 濾嘴門檻 0.5累積損益 ……………………………………………36 圖4-3 濾嘴門檻 0.75累積損益圖…………………………………………36 圖4-4 濾嘴門檻 1.00累積損益圖…………………………………………37 圖4-5 濾嘴門檻 1.25累積損益圖…………………………………………37
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